Tuesday, June 7, 2011

How Do Radio Ratings Work?

Arbitron is in the business of gathering and selling radio listening data. They provide data on who is listening to which station at what time of day. That's quantitative data. Abitron also provides qualitative data - exactly who are the people listening to radio? .... what are their ages, lifestyles, education, home ownership, automobile ownership and much more. They have been the major player in radio ratings for decades. There have been a few competitors, like Birch, but most of the competition has never lasted long. Can you say monopoly?



For years Arbitron has used a diary method to gather data - a sample of the population in a rated market keeps details of what stations they listen to over a period of several weeks. In the past Arbitron had spring surveys and fall surveys. Then in larger markets they added winter surveys and summer surveys. Some markets are in a ratings survey period year round. The big problem with diaries is that people aren't always meticulous about how they fill them out; and for any given area, a very few diaries are extrapolated to provide general audience trends. In recent years, Arbitron has been rolling out the Portable People Meter (or PPM) - an electronic device that records actual listening data for the person it's assigned to.

Over the years there have been stations that start a contest on a Thursday - and usually at 20 minutes past the hour. Why? Arbitron's ratings week starts on Thursday and stations get credit for listening broken down by quarter hour. In the Arbitron game, 20 past the hour gets a station credit in two quarter hours. That's why you'll hear things like the "Really Big Giveaway" starts Thursday at 7:20 on KABC. One extremely popular ratings gimmick has centered on 7:20 AM Thursdays - the Birthday Giveaway. "If your birthday is in this envelope when we open it at 7:20 this Thursday morning, you could win $10,000." In this example are the words "if" and "could" - meaning someone may or may not win $10,000. Under FCC regulations, stations are supposed to be completely honest with all of their contests - in most cases the FCC expects stations to have a list of rules and qualifications for any given contest available to listeners - so the unsuspecting listener can see "the fine print". If there are loopholes that get the station out of having to award the big prize in a contest, they'll be spelled out in the contest rules, or should be.



Geographically, survey areas are divided into metro survey areas (MSA) - larger cities and the county they're located in, and total survey areas - all of the counties that make up a particular radio market (TSA).

In Missouri, a county may have a population of several hundred thousand people, but Arbitron data is often comprised of the diaries from only 20 to 40 actual listeners. Larger metropolitan areas have a higher concentration of diary penetration, but it's still only fractional compared to the total population.

You're probably thinking all this data gathering and compiling is expensive and you're right. Who pays for all that data and technology? Radio stations and advertising agencies are Arbiton's paying customers. And how much does all of this data cost? By and large, radio stations would prefer that you not know who much the data is costing them. Why? It's very expensive. For a small market station that's rated in a TSA or MSA the annual cost of Arbitron ratings is often more than the annual salary of many of that station's employees. So they'd prefer you and their employees not know how much Arbitron data costs. Arbitron has a confidentiality clause in their contracts, so stations legally can't say how much they're paying.

I can only speak from experience. For a small market broadcaster in the 80's - Arbitron had a fairly economical package called the county by county ratings. The data was actually over a year old for each year's publication - so the spring 1987 ratings data would be published in the 1988 county by county book. The county by county book for Missouri in the 80's cost us around $1200 (per year). But that was only gravy for Arbitron at the time - the real paying customers were and are the subscribing stations in an MSA or TSA. Once a station shows up in a rated MSA market - they can no longer buy the county by county ratings - they have to pay for MSA and TSA data if they wish to use Arbitron data.

Arbitron data is based on an annual fee, and stations are given the option to pay that monthly for any given year. Arbitron has long had a built in annual price increase in their contract - so for example with a 5 year contract, year 1 is the least expensive and year 5 is the most expensive.

The station contract with Arbitron ended in the Spring of 2010. At that time, Arbitron data cost the station somewhere in the ballpark of $36,000 a year. And that's actually more than twice the amount of many employee's annual salary - so Arbitron cost is not something most stations want to talk about. Arbitron proposed a new 5 year contract for the station that would have seen that annual cost exceed $55,000 a year in the 5th year, and the only person in the station making that kind of money is the owner.



Stations use ratings data to increase ad sales - more listeners mean higher advertising rates - but there's a point where Arbitron can be just too expensive for the return on investment and Arbitron hit that point with my former station in 2010.

Advertising agencies - whose customers are retailers, companies and corporations - use ratings data to determine which station provides the best value for their customers.

Ratings data is expensive. Too expensive for many smaller stations. And those stations will usually point out the flaws in Arbitron's methodology - like the sparse number of actual diaries involved in ratings, or the ability to manipulate the numbers to show what somebody wants to show. Arbitron would likely argue the latter of those is a feature, not a flaw.

While usually only one station can be number 1 in terms of total listeners for a given time period, you can use a combination of quantitative and qualitative data to show a particular station's strengths. For example: number 1 among men, 18-34 years of age who are employed full time, make more than $45,000 a year, drive a pickup and live north of the Missouri River. And there really are advertisers who are interested in reaching the top station with those kind of demographics.

Ratings are one big, expensive game - played by Arbitron, radio stations, advertising agencies and the people listening (or not listening) to radio.

The overall number of people listening to radio continues to decline - as people turn to other sources for entertainment and information.

So it goes.

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Cicada Factoid

If you live in Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas or several other mid-south states, no doubt you've heard the cicadas this spring.  This year we are blessed with the 13 year Great Southern Brood Cicadas.  While you may find their mating call annoying, they do have a couple of positive aspects.  Right now it's a virtual all-you-can-eat smorgasbord for birds and other critters that can feed on the cicadas.  And some experts say they may be as thick as a million cicadas per acre in some forests.  As the bugs mature and die, they'll provide the equivalent of about a pound of fertilizer per square yard over the forest floor.

I've perused the Internet searching for interesting facts about the periodical cicadas and here is some of what I found:
This year (2011) the Great Southern Brood is out across some 14 states.

Overall, there are some 30 broods of 13 year and 17 year cicadas.  The 17 year broods are located further north than their 13 year counterparts.  The last time the cicadas were here, both the 13 and 17 year varieties appeared in 1998.  So while this year we have the 13 year cicadas, the 17 year cicadas will return in 2015.

They are sometimes called locusts, although they are not in that genus, but are cicadas.  They pose no major threat to vegetation although laying their eggs may damage some young trees.

They don't bite or sting, but they do have what look like barbs on their legs so they can be uncomfortable on sensitive skin.  They aren't attracted to humans, although they may be thick enough to collide with you at some point.  (They aren't attacking you).

Their life cycle is something like this:  They emerge as nymphs from the soil where they've lived for 13 years feeding on plant roots.  The white, adult nymphs shed their exoskeleton after about 6 days and as black and red adult cicadas live for about 5 weeks.  During that time they mate and produce eggs.  The eggs will hatch nymphs and the nymphs will burrow into the ground where they'll stay for the next 13 years, only to emerge and start the cycle again.


Experts don't know why mother nature chose 13 year and 17 year cycles, and why (for example) there are no 5 or 15 year cicadas.


Cicadas have been eaten in China, Malaysia, Burma, Latin America, Germany, the Congo and in the United States. In North China, cicadas are skewered, deep fried or stir fried as a delicacy. Sparky's, a local ice-cream shop in Columbia, MO, began serving Cicada ice-cream in 2011.  Yum-yum!  (NOT)

So enjoy one of nature's many wonders while they're here.  They'll be gone by mid to late July and this particular variety won't be around again until 2024.

So it goes.



Friday, June 3, 2011

Adventures in Moving

I think it's safe to say that moving is never fun.  Whether moving your household or your business there are lots of loose ends you won't see until they hit you in the face at midnight on a Friday during your move.

So, while moving is never fun, it CAN be an adventure.  After all life is an adventure and moving is just another little chapter in the overall life adventure experience.   Mark Twain said that two things in life are certain – death and taxes.  I'd add moving to that short list, because even if you've found your dream home in your dream location – you'll be moving at some point.  To something better, something bigger, something smaller.  Never say you'll you'll never move.  Even if you expire before you move – somebody is still going to have to move all that stuff.

Rule number 1 in moving – downsize before the move.  You've got stuff you don't need, stuff you don't use and face it, some stuff that should have been thrown out a long time ago.  Don't move anything that you don't really need to move – sell it, craigslist it, ebay it, give it away, donate it, dispose of it.  It'll make your move a lot easier.

Rule number 2 – get some help to move.  Even if you think you've downsized to the point that you can move everything yourself – plan on getting some help for the move.  You can't do it all yourself and you'll probably run out of time – so ease the pain a little by planning ahead to have some help with the move.

Rule number 3 – never believe what the phone company promises about service at your new address.  I called AT&T well ahead of our move to see if high speed DSL was available at the new address.  Two days later I received a call that a technician had tested from the new address and DSL would be available.  So everything was set to be activated on the last day of our move.  A technician was supposed to install DSL between 8 AM and 5 PM on the day of the appointment.  But a letter from AT&T that week said that since I already had the DSL modem, no technician visit would be necessary and my high speed internet would available after 8 PM on the day scheduled.  Guess what?  8 PM rolled around on that Friday and the DSL light on the modem was still flashing red.  So I call the number listed in the letter.  After talking to someone with a Malaysian accent I got transferred to the “proper department”.  The automated voice at the other end of that call then informed me that office was open from 8 AM to 7 PM central time Monday through Friday.  Oh, I get it – service will be activated after 8 PM – an hour after everyone goes home so there's no chance of getting anything straightened out till next week.

It rained a couple of times between Friday night and Monday morning.  Each time it rained, the DSL light on the modem would change from red to green about once a minute.  Not a good sign.  It looked like the modem almost had DSL sync but only when it rained.

Monday morning I am told there was a discrepancy in the order for service, and that it had been automatically rescheduled from Friday to Wednesday.   Logically, it seemed to me like if they couldn't do it Friday, they should do it Monday – but this is the phone company.

Wednesday afternoon a technician shows up.  After several trips between his truck and the back of the house where the phone stuff is, he tells me he's having trouble getting DSL sync.  It works from the box at the street, but not at the box on the back of the house.  Then he adds, even IF he can get the DSL signal to sync up – I would only have access to the SLOWEST speed that AT&T offers for “high speed” internet.  While better than a dial up connection, it's way slower than the 6 MB service I had previously – all of 768 KB or a little better than 10 times the speed of dial up.  And that's IF he can get it to work at all.  I would consider accessing the world at that rate to be only a last resort.  I've been spoiled by a high speed Internet connection for about 10 years.  The thought of dial up (56K) or low speed DSL (768K) would seem like taking a step back in time to before high speed Internet was available.

I also told the tech that somebody had called to tell me that a technician had tested DSL from the new address and there shouldn't be any problem.  He said he didn't think AT&T had done that for a few years (send a technician to verify before the installation).  So in his opinion, no one had tested to see if DSL would actually work at the new address until he came out.

After he left – and that's without DSL working at all – I call the cable company to verify if their high speed Internet is available at the new address.   Yes it is – and their 8 MB service would be $10 cheaper for the first three months as an introductory rate and the installation would be free.  The only glitch with the cable company is that they didn't have an opening in their schedule until the following Wednesday.  I considered that minor at this point, since it looked like AT&T couldn't provide DSL service and I had been managing this far with no Internet access – a few more days was no big deal.

While I say I had no Internet access – I should clarify.  At least 3 households in the neighborhood have WI-Fi connections that are not password protected.  But I tried not to take advantage of their wide open connections and only connected long enough to retrieve and send email several times a day.  About 12 wireless routers show up in the neighborhood, 3 of those without passwords –  so about 25% are running a wide open wireless Internet connection.  That's never a good idea even if you trust all of your neighbors.  If somebody wanted to steal your identity, a wide open wireless Internet connection is like hanging a “Welcome” sign outside an open door.  I'd like to advise the people that aren't password protected they should lock down access to their router, but the 3 open routers are using generic names – either the brand of the router for the SSID (as in Linksys), or something like “Router” so I have no easy way to identify them.  A wide open router means my connection to the Internet was not encrypted either – so that's why I limited what I was doing on the Internet to just email.  I can't thank those neighbors enough for having an unprotected wireless connection – it sure helped me – but the first order of business for anyone with a wireless router should be WPA or WPA2 encryption.

Wednesday morning the cable tech shows up to install cable Internet and an hour later I'm back on the Internet with an 8 MB connection – faster than the DSL I had at the old address.

So that's a bit of what I learned from our move.  And even though my wife says we aren't moving again (anytime soon)– I feel like I'll be better prepared next time.  At least that's the plan.

So it goes.